Judging Tomorrow’s Technology with Today’s Behavior
September 28th, 2007 by Dr. Riza C Berkan, CEOI have stumbled across a nice blog article, titled “The (Big) Problem For NY’s Hakia and Other Google-Killing Search Engines” . In the article, Henry Blodget mentions the difficulties for new startups like hakia and Powerset to be the users’ behavior and satisfaction levels of the current search engines. Points are well taken, yet there is a missing component which I could not resist to write about.
In retrospect, I was one of the first users of analog cell phones. You know… the Motorola era. At that time I was quite happy with it. Reception was OK, it did the job. If someone came to me those days and said, “hey look there is a digital cell phone coming up so you can take pictures with your cell phone.” I would, and probably did, say “who cares.” Like me, many people may have been responding to future ideas in this manner. Namely, judging tomorrow’s technology with today’s behavior.
Semantic search is tomorrow’s technology. It is really not a choice, niche, or fad. It is the unavoidable evolution of language-related technologies. Even in Star Trek episodes we were introduced to it: a computer that talks back with some intelligence embedded.
To be more concrete, I can immediately say that today’s expectation and satisfaction levels are directly related to “popular” queries, the fat-tail, or the tip of the iceberg. What is greatly missing is the “unpopular” queries, the long tail, or the bottom of the iceberg. These “unpopular” queries are what makes search experience a personal experience challenged with the uniqueness of each individual brain, and its wishes. That’s where statistics end, and the voting algorithms fade away.
When approached in this fashion, Henry Blodget’s question becomes more accurate if we put a time-frame to it. For example, I was not expecting videos shot from a cell-phone to be widely used in a 5 year time-frame since the day I first heard about the idea. Accordingly, one must ask “when?” There will be a time when semantic search will make a significant entry, and it will eventually take over. What is the time frame? Otherwise, one will be forced to imagine Mr. Spock talking to the computer using keywords.. That would be intolerable. Don’t you agree?
